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The pen-and-paper audit.

The whole method runs on paper — no app, no AI, no account. Print this, keep it in a notebook, and walk any decision through the same adversarial check the engine performs.

Irrational — bias audit

One decision, audited adversarially. Fill it in honestly; the goal is to be told no.

Decision

Date

  1. 1 · Spot the system

    Did this come from fast intuition, or slow, deliberate analysis? A confident gut call dressed as analysis is the dangerous one.

  2. 2 · Name the biases

    Tick the ones at play — and for each, write the exact thing in your reasoning that shows it. No tick without evidence.

    Too much information

    Not enough meaning

    Need to act fast

    What we remember & how we judge what happened

    Evidence, in my own words:

  3. 3 · Apply the outside view

    Forget this case. What usually happens in cases like this — the base rate — and how far is your estimate from it?

  4. 4 · Run a premortem

    It's a year later and this decision failed. Write the single most likely reason — concretely.

  5. 5 · Sit with the hard questions

    • If you'd never started / already paid / heard that first number — would you still choose this today?
    • What evidence would change your mind, and have you actually gone looking for it?
    • Are you choosing this because it's best, or because it's the default / what everyone's doing / what you already want?
    • What's the realistic downside — and have you priced it in?

  6. 6 · Recalibrate

    The version of the decision that survives scrutiny (not a reflexive "no") — and a confidence level you can defend.

    Confidence I can defend: %